B120.200503 (03/24/05 1428)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Mar 1, 2005 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 590 89%
Scott River near Fort Jones 150 75%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 265 89%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 370 93%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 850 78%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1540 83% 1120 - 2330
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2050 81% 1310 - 3230
Feather River at Oroville 1500 80% 1090 - 2460
Yuba River at Smartville 960 92% 670 - 1510
American River below Folsom Lake 1330 104% 910 - 1980
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 130 100% 80 - 230
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 560 119% 440 - 780
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 900 126% 700 - 1160
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1590 129% 1310 - 2030
Merced River below Merced Falls 870 137% 740 - 1090
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1720 136% 1400 - 2180
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1620 131% 1300 - 2080
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 360 124% 295 - 505
Tule River below Lake Success 70 108% 40 - 115
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 580 124% 470 - 840
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 260 95%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.3 90%
West Carson River at Woodfords 60 108%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 225 118%
West Walker River below Little Walker 180 117%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 80 122%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflow to Shasta 1535 500 700 600 455 275 210 410 4685 4060 - 6045
Sacramento, Bend 2465 735 1000 770 600 380 300 520 6770 5480 - 8830
Feather, Oroville 750 325 500 590 540 240 130 150 3225 2580 - 4600
Yuba, Smartville 345 155 250 360 385 175 40 45 1755 1375 - 2475
American, Folsom 500 225 340 460 540 270 60 25 2420 1880 - 3300
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 99 48 70 65 45 17 3 2 349 270 - 505
Mokelumne, Pardee 115 65 80 135 230 160 35 5 825 680 - 1090
Stanislaus, Gdw. 230 110 140 235 355 235 75 25 1405 1160 - 1730
Tuolumne, LaGrange 440 190 245 340 560 500 190 40 2505 2170 - 3030
Merced, McClure 280 105 135 195 320 265 90 35 1425 1270 - 1680
San Joaquin, Mil. 300 135 200 310 610 565 235 90 2445 2065 - 3100
Kings, Pine Flat 240 85 150 275 565 540 240 95 2190 1820 - 2730
Kaweah, Terminus 70 26 45 80 135 110 35 15 516 440 - 690
Tule, Success 34 11 25 35 20 10 5 3 143 100 - 210
Kern, Isabella 110 50 65 110 215 175 80 55 860 720 - 1180
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
