B120.200601 (02/08/06 1151)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Feb 1, 2006 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 710 108%
Scott River near Fort Jones 200 100%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 300 100%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 435 109%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 1050 96%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1940 105% 1340 - 2840
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2430 96% 1550 - 3750
Feather River at Oroville 1600 86% 1000 - 2760
Yuba River at Smartville 910 87% 480 - 1570
American River below Folsom Lake 1300 101% 790 - 2200
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 125 96% 65 - 255
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 515 110% 370 - 790
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 800 112% 580 - 1210
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1370 111% 1020 - 1950
Merced River below Merced Falls 715 113% 530 - 1060
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1460 116% 1060 - 2070
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1370 111% 930 - 1960
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 275 95% 175 - 460
Tule River below Lake Success 50 77% 26 - 110
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 475 101% 305 - 840
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 245 90%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.2 83%
West Carson River at Woodfords 66 119%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 240 126%
West Walker River below Little Walker 195 127%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 95 145%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 3125 930 945 765 570 360 245 400 7340 6035 - 9300
Sacramento, Bend 5125 1400 1285 975 700 445 310 520 10760 8715 - 13820
Feather, Oroville 2625 610 640 630 550 280 140 190 5665 4525 - 7870
Yuba, Smartville 1435 230 280 345 345 165 55 45 2900 2305 - 3965
American, Folsom 1515 310 300 455 525 260 60 25 3450 2685 - 4790
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 208 60 70 68 39 15 3 2 465 340 - 735
Mokelumne, Pardee 280 75 90 135 220 140 20 5 965 770 - 1340
Stanislaus, Gdw. 445 110 135 220 320 205 55 15 1505 1190 - 2050
Tuolumne, LaGrange 530 160 200 315 515 425 115 25 2285 1830 - 3040
Merced, McClure 210 80 95 170 300 195 50 15 1115 880 - 1560
San Joaquin, Mil. 315 95 140 270 525 470 195 60 2070 1580 - 2810
Kings, Pine Flat 245 80 110 240 495 450 185 50 1855 1330 - 2550
Kaweah, Terminus 77 25 40 65 105 80 25 8 425 290 - 660
Tule, Success 32 15 18 20 19 8 3 2 117 75 - 220
Kern, Isabella 125 35 50 110 170 140 55 35 720 500 - 1180
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
