B120.200604 (04/10/06 1557)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Apr 1, 2006 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 1000 152%
Scott River near Fort Jones 245 123%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 430 144%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 580 145%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 1360 125%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 2510 136% 2110 - 3160
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 3400 135% 2880 - 4400
Feather River at Oroville 2300 123% 1940 - 2980
Yuba River at Smartville 1230 118% 990 - 1640
American River below Folsom Lake 1630 127% 1400 - 2100
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 175 135% 135 - 245
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 610 130% 550 - 750
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 970 136% 860 - 1180
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1610 131% 1460 - 1890
Merced River below Merced Falls 830 131% 760 - 1010
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1700 135% 1530 - 1950
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1690 137% 1510 - 1890
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 360 124% 325 - 440
Tule River below Lake Success 70 108% 61 - 95
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 550 117% 520 - 670
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 330 121%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.8 125%
West Carson River at Woodfords 77 139%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 280 147%
West Walker River below Little Walker 245 160%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 120 184%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 3125 825 1380 1020 730 460 300 440 8280 7800 - 9040
Sacramento, Bend 5125 1335 2130 1430 970 610 390 620 12610 12010 - 13705
Feather, Oroville 2625 725 1130 880 820 400 200 220 7000 6610 - 7765
Yuba, Smartville 1435 405 495 450 460 250 70 50 3615 3355 - 4050
American, Folsom 1515 475 645 560 630 360 80 40 4305 4060 - 4805
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 208 60 159 90 55 25 5 2 604 560 - 675
Mokelumne, Pardee 280 85 140 150 240 190 30 10 1125 1060 - 1270
Stanislaus, Gdw. 445 135 240 250 370 270 80 15 1805 1700 - 2045
Tuolumne, LaGrange 530 150 300 350 580 520 160 25 2615 2450 - 2960
Merced, McClure 210 75 170 180 310 270 70 15 1300 1220 - 1515
San Joaquin, Mil. 315 110 200 300 550 580 270 60 2385 2190 - 2730
Kings, Pine Flat 245 80 155 270 550 590 280 50 2220 2030 - 2430
Kaweah, Terminus 77 26 61 85 120 120 35 8 532 490 - 620
Tule, Success 32 7 31 30 25 12 3 2 142 130 - 170
Kern, Isabella 125 35 60 120 180 180 70 35 805 770 - 940
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1951 to 2000.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
