B120.200704 (04/10/07 0905)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Apr 1, 2007 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 310 47%
Scott River near Fort Jones 90 45%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 170 57%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 290 74%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 720 68%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1210 67% 860 - 1850
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1580 63% 1160 - 2430
Feather River at Oroville 700 39% 510 - 1270
Yuba River at Smartville 470 47% 340 - 770
American River below Folsom Lake 590 48% 430 - 940
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 42 33% 15 - 115
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 230 50% 170 - 350
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 310 44% 220 - 500
Tuolumne River below La Grange 630 52% 450 - 910
Merced River below Merced Falls 260 41% 190 - 430
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 530 42% 360 - 790
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 510 42% 350 - 750
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 100 35% 70 - 180
Tule River below Lake Success 20 31% 13 - 41
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 150 33% 100 - 250
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 110 42%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.6 43%
West Carson River at Woodfords 23 42%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 80 43%
West Walker River below Little Walker 62 40%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 18 28%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflow to Shasta 1330 610 545 450 350 220 190 340 4035 3610 - 4785
Sacramento, Bend 1880 910 675 610 460 290 220 400 5445 4940 - 6430
Feather, Oroville 685 460 435 270 255 100 75 125 2405 2175 - 3060
Yuba, Smartville 265 250 240 195 195 60 20 25 1250 1105 - 1565
American, Folsom 210 260 285 250 235 90 15 5 1350 1185 - 1715
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 25 35 34 23 14 4 1 1 137 100 - 200
Mokelumne, Pardee 55 45 80 90 105 30 3 3 411 350 - 540
Stanislaus, Gdw. 85 80 110 115 130 55 10 5 590 500 - 800
Tuolumne, LaGrange 85 95 145 180 265 155 30 15 970 780 - 1280
Merced, McClure 40 40 60 85 105 55 15 6 406 330 - 590
San Joaquin, Mil. 85 45 100 140 220 130 40 25 785 610 - 1090
Kings, Pine Flat 85 35 95 120 225 125 40 25 750 610 - 1060
Kaweah, Terminus 23 12 28 36 40 20 4 4 167 130 - 250
Tule, Success 11 6 9 10 7 2 1 1 47 40 - 75
Kern, Isabella 75 20 35 40 60 35 15 20 300 240 - 420
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
