B120.200705 (05/24/07 1433)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
May 1, 2007 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 270 41%
Scott River near Fort Jones 80 40%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 140 47%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 260 66%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 690 65%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1120 62% 900 - 1420
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1430 57% 1180 - 1820
Feather River at Oroville 670 38% 570 - 920
Yuba River at Smartville 450 45% 360 - 580
American River below Folsom Lake 530 43% 430 - 670
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 35 28% 20 - 65
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 200 43% 160 - 270
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 290 41% 230 - 400
Tuolumne River below La Grange 560 46% 440 - 710
Merced River below Merced Falls 230 36% 180 - 320
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 490 39% 390 - 640
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 480 39% 380 - 580
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 95 33% 75 - 135
Tule River below Lake Success 19 30% 14 - 32
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 145 31% 115 - 200
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 100 38%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.6 43%
West Carson River at Woodfords 24 44%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 85 45%
West Walker River below Little Walker 64 42%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 17 27%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1330 610 545 345 340 235 200 340 3945 3645 - 4325
Sacramento, Bend 1880 910 675 440 430 315 245 385 5280 4965 - 5865
Feather, Oroville 685 460 435 310 180 105 80 125 2380 2235 - 2705
Yuba, Smartville 265 250 240 205 175 55 20 20 1230 1125 - 1380
American, Folsom 210 260 285 250 200 65 15 4 1289 1180 - 1445
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 25 35 39 21 11 3 1 0 135 110 - 150
Mokelumne, Pardee 55 45 80 85 90 20 5 3 383 340 - 460
Stanislaus, Gdw. 85 80 110 125 130 30 5 5 570 500 - 690
Tuolumne, LaGrange 85 95 145 175 250 115 20 10 895 770 - 1070
Merced, McClure 40 40 60 90 100 35 10 2 377 320 - 470
San Joaquin, Mil. 85 45 100 135 205 115 35 20 740 630 - 920
Kings, Pine Flat 85 35 95 145 200 110 25 20 715 640 - 870
Kaweah, Terminus 23 12 28 37 38 16 4 3 161 140 - 210
Tule, Success 11 6 9 8 7 3 1 0 45 45 - 65
Kern, Isabella 75 20 35 35 55 40 15 20 295 260 - 360
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2637 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2634 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2617 daver@water.ca.gov
