B120.200803 (03/10/08 1130)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Mar 1, 2008 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 700 107%
Scott River near Fort Jones 195 98%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 310 104%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 370 94%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 920 86%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1650 91% 1210 - 2550
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 2180 87% 1550 - 3610
Feather River at Oroville 1740 98% 1140 - 2890
Yuba River at Smartville 960 95% 600 - 1530
American River below Folsom Lake 1160 94% 720 - 1990
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 120 95% 60 - 270
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 460 100% 340 - 700
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 700 100% 530 - 1090
Tuolumne River below La Grange 1220 100% 960 - 1840
Merced River below Merced Falls 610 97% 470 - 960
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 1240 99% 960 - 1830
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 1280 105% 1000 - 1870
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 320 112% 260 - 500
Tule River below Lake Success 67 105% 48 - 141
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 500 108% 390 - 800
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 230 88%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 1.1 80%
West Carson River at Woodfords 50 92%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 170 91%
West Walker River below Little Walker 145 94%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 57 89%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inflow to Shasta 1335 610 730 640 485 295 230 420 4745 4030 - 6275
Sacramento, Bend 2010 1005 1180 830 640 410 300 530 6905 5725 - 9070
Feather, Oroville 500 240 560 680 620 300 140 180 3220 2430 - 4970
Yuba, Smartville 225 140 280 365 400 155 40 35 1640 1180 - 2435
American, Folsom 205 140 330 410 480 220 50 25 1860 1300 - 2940
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 30 27 55 62 40 15 3 1 233 140 - 455
Mokelumne, Pardee 25 30 80 125 205 115 15 5 600 450 - 890
Stanislaus, Gdw. 75 55 110 200 290 170 40 10 950 740 - 1465
Tuolumne, LaGrange 110 100 190 290 475 375 80 25 1645 1330 - 2385
Merced, McClure 55 65 95 150 260 165 35 15 840 670 - 1260
San Joaquin, Mil. 95 70 140 250 450 395 145 65 1610 1270 - 2320
Kings, Pine Flat 85 75 120 230 480 440 130 55 1615 1290 - 2290
Kaweah, Terminus 31 31 50 75 125 95 25 11 443 370 - 660
Tule, Success 16 18 25 27 25 11 4 3 129 100 - 235
Kern, Isabella 55 35 50 105 165 155 75 45 685 550 - 1050
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2636 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2224 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2983 daver@water.ca.gov
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 areising@water.ca.gov
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 aschneid@water.ca.gov
