B120.200805 (05/08/08 1058)
Department of Water Resources
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
May 1, 2008 FORECAST
OF UNIMPAIRED RUNOFF
(in thousands of acre-feet)
April-July Forecast
April Percent 80%
thru of Probability
July Average Range
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NORTH COAST
Trinity River at Lewiston Lake 570 87%
Scott River near Fort Jones 160 80%
SACRAMENTO RIVER
Sacramento River above Shasta Lake 220 74%
McCloud River above Shasta Lake 310 79%
Pit River above Shasta Lake 790 74%
Total inflow to Shasta Lake 1350 74% 1110 - 1750
Sacramento River above Bend Bridge 1860 75% 1550 - 2390
Feather River at Oroville 1180 66% 900 - 1590
Yuba River at Smartville 630 63% 490 - 780
American River below Folsom Lake 760 61% 590 - 960
SAN JOAQUIN RIVER
Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar 62 49% 25 - 110
Mokelumne River inflow to Pardee 290 63% 250 - 340
Stanislaus River below Goodwin Res. 500 71% 410 - 600
Tuolumne River below La Grange 870 71% 770 - 1040
Merced River below Merced Falls 400 63% 340 - 510
San Joaquin River inflow to Millerton Lk 880 70% 730 - 1050
TULARE LAKE
Kings River below Pine Flat Res. 970 79% 850 - 1110
Kaweah River below Terminus Res. 230 80% 190 - 290
Tule River below Lake Success 37 58% 29 - 59
Kern River inflow to Lake Isabella 330 72% 270 - 400
NORTH LAHONTAN
Truckee River,Tahoe to Farad accretions 150 57%
Lake Tahoe Rise, in feet 0.7 51%
West Carson River at Woodfords 33 61%
East Carson River near Gardnerville 115 62%
West Walker River below Little Walker 105 68%
East Walker River near Bridgeport 41 64%
Water-Year Forecast and Monthly Distribution
Oct Aug Water 80%
thru Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul & Year Probability
Jan Sep Range
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Inflow to Shasta 1335 610 525 370 450 300 230 405 4225 3910 - 4750
Sacramento, Bend 2010 1005 700 455 660 440 305 520 6095 5695 - 6775
Feather, Oroville 500 240 360 355 470 240 115 170 2450 2125 - 2920
Yuba, Smartville 225 140 180 230 285 95 20 25 1200 1045 - 1360
American, Folsom 205 140 185 255 330 155 20 14 1304 1130 - 1510
Cosumnes, Mich.Bar 30 27 22 23 28 9 2 1 142 100 - 195
Mokelumne, Pardee 25 30 50 80 140 65 5 2 397 350 - 450
Stanislaus, Gdw. 75 55 75 135 220 120 25 15 720 620 - 830
Tuolumne, LaGrange 110 100 125 190 365 260 55 15 1220 1110 - 1430
Merced, McClure 55 65 50 105 180 95 20 8 578 515 - 700
San Joaquin, Mil. 95 70 105 175 350 265 90 40 1190 1020 - 1380
Kings, Pine Flat 85 75 100 200 390 290 90 45 1275 1150 - 1430
Kaweah, Terminus 31 31 39 54 90 70 16 7 338 290 - 400
Tule, Success 16 18 16 11 17 7 2 1 88 75 - 115
Kern, Isabella 55 35 55 80 115 95 40 35 510 440 - 590
Notes:
50 year averages are based on years 1956 to 2005.
Unimpaired runoff represents the natural water production of a river basin,
unaltered by upsteam diversions, storage, or by export or import of water
to or from other watersheds.
Forecasted runoff assumes median conditions subsequent to the date of forecast.
Runoff probability ranges are statistically derived from historical data.
The 80% probability range is comprised of the 90% exceedence level value
and the 10% exceedence level value.
The actual runoff should fall within the stated limits eight times out of ten.
Forecast point names are based on USGS gage names.
For more information please contact:
John King at (916) 574-2636 kingjj@water.ca.gov
Steve Nemeth at (916) 574-2224 nemeth@water.ca.gov
Dave Rizzardo at (916) 574-2983 daver@water.ca.gov
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 areising@water.ca.gov
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 aschneid@water.ca.gov
