B120UP.200502 (02/24/05 1427)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2005 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Feb 1 %Avg Feb 15 %Avg Feb 22 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 1140 62% 1050 57% 1140 62%
50% Exceedence 1700 92% 1570 85% 1560 84%
10% Exceedence 2650 143% 2420 131% 2380 129%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 1100 59% 1000 53% 1100 59%
50% Exceedence 1700 91% 1530 82% 1500 80%
10% Exceedence 2910 156% 2600 139% 2550 136%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 690 66% 650 62% 690 66%
50% Exceedence 1080 103% 1000 96% 1000 96%
10% Exceedence 1790 171% 1600 153% 1580 151%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 910 71% 850 66% 930 73%
50% Exceedence 1410 110% 1310 102% 1360 106%
10% Exceedence 2160 168% 2050 160% 2040 159%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 430 92% 400 85% 440 94%
50% Exceedence 570 122% 530 113% 560 119%
10% Exceedence 840 179% 780 166% 790 168%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 630 88% 610 85% 670 94%
50% Exceedence 900 126% 840 117% 890 124%
10% Exceedence 1210 169% 1150 161% 1160 162%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 1250 102% 1200 98% 1290 105%
50% Exceedence 1630 133% 1520 124% 1590 129%
10% Exceedence 2130 173% 2000 163% 2030 165%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 660 104% 650 103% 700 111%
50% Exceedence 870 137% 820 129% 860 136%
10% Exceedence 1140 180% 1080 171% 1090 172%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 1280 101% 1250 99% 1350 107%
50% Exceedence 1730 137% 1630 129% 1700 135%
10% Exceedence 2300 182% 2150 170% 2180 173%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 1240 100% 1200 97% 1290 105%
50% Exceedence 1700 138% 1590 129% 1650 134%
10% Exceedence 2300 186% 2120 172% 2130 173%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 270 93% 250 86% 290 100%
50% Exceedence 380 131% 350 121% 370 128%
10% Exceedence 560 193% 500 173% 510 176%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 40 62% 38 59% 45 69%
50% Exceedence 75 116% 70 108% 75 116%
10% Exceedence 125 193% 115 177% 120 185%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 410 87% 400 85% 450 96%
50% Exceedence 620 132% 580 124% 600 128%
10% Exceedence 940 200% 870 185% 870 185%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Call (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.
