B120UP.200602 (02/23/06 1155)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2006 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Feb 1 %Avg Feb 14 %Avg Feb 21 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 1340 72% 1360 74% 1320 71%
50% Exceedence 1940 105% 1900 103% 1840 100%
10% Exceedence 2840 154% 2760 149% 2670 144%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 1000 53% 930 50% 900 48%
50% Exceedence 1600 86% 1490 80% 1430 76%
10% Exceedence 2760 148% 2560 137% 2450 131%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 480 46% 460 44% 450 43%
50% Exceedence 910 87% 860 82% 820 79%
10% Exceedence 1570 150% 1470 141% 1390 133%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 790 62% 700 55% 670 52%
50% Exceedence 1300 101% 1175 92% 1130 88%
10% Exceedence 2200 172% 1990 155% 1900 148%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 370 79% 340 72% 330 70%
50% Exceedence 515 110% 480 102% 460 98%
10% Exceedence 790 168% 730 156% 700 149%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 580 81% 535 75% 520 73%
50% Exceedence 800 112% 750 105% 730 102%
10% Exceedence 1210 169% 1120 156% 1080 151%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 1020 83% 960 78% 940 76%
50% Exceedence 1370 111% 1280 104% 1240 101%
10% Exceedence 1950 159% 1830 149% 1760 143%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 530 84% 490 77% 480 76%
50% Exceedence 715 113% 650 103% 630 99%
10% Exceedence 1060 167% 980 155% 940 148%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 1060 84% 960 76% 930 74%
50% Exceedence 1460 116% 1325 105% 1280 101%
10% Exceedence 2070 164% 1910 151% 1830 145%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 930 75% 870 70% 850 69%
50% Exceedence 1370 111% 1260 102% 1210 98%
10% Exceedence 1960 159% 1800 146% 1710 139%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 175 60% 155 54% 150 52%
50% Exceedence 275 95% 250 86% 240 83%
10% Exceedence 460 159% 415 143% 395 136%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 26 40% 23 35% 23 35%
50% Exceedence 50 77% 44 68% 43 66%
10% Exceedence 110 170% 96 148% 91 140%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 305 65% 235 50% 230 49%
50% Exceedence 475 101% 390 83% 370 79%
10% Exceedence 840 179% 700 149% 660 141%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.
