B120UP.200603 (03/30/06 1620)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2006 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Mar 1 %Avg Mar 14 %Avg Mar 21 %Avg Mar 28 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 1430 77% 1780 96% 1950 105% 2080 112%
50% Exceedence 1960 106% 2250 122% 2360 128% 2460 133%
10% Exceedence 2730 148% 2970 161% 3060 165% 3110 168%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 1060 57% 1530 82% 1710 91% 1880 101%
50% Exceedence 1600 86% 1970 105% 2090 112% 2230 119%
10% Exceedence 2560 137% 2830 151% 2890 155% 2970 159%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 570 55% 820 79% 930 89% 1020 98%
50% Exceedence 910 87% 1110 106% 1180 113% 1240 119%
10% Exceedence 1460 140% 1590 152% 1620 155% 1640 157%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 710 55% 1070 83% 1220 95% 1340 104%
50% Exceedence 1150 90% 1420 111% 1520 119% 1610 126%
10% Exceedence 1860 145% 2040 159% 2090 163% 2120 165%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 360 77% 470 100% 510 109% 550 117%
50% Exceedence 490 104% 580 124% 610 130% 630 134%
10% Exceedence 720 153% 780 166% 790 168% 800 171%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 580 81% 740 103% 800 112% 860 120%
50% Exceedence 780 109% 910 127% 950 133% 990 138%
10% Exceedence 1100 154% 1190 166% 1200 168% 1220 170%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 1030 84% 1300 106% 1400 114% 1500 122%
50% Exceedence 1310 106% 1530 124% 1600 130% 1670 136%
10% Exceedence 1800 146% 1940 158% 1970 160% 1990 162%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 530 84% 660 104% 710 112% 760 120%
50% Exceedence 650 103% 760 120% 800 126% 840 133%
10% Exceedence 950 150% 1010 159% 1020 161% 1030 163%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 920 73% 1200 95% 1300 103% 1390 110%
50% Exceedence 1270 101% 1480 117% 1530 121% 1580 125%
10% Exceedence 1780 141% 1890 150% 1880 149% 1900 151%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 890 72% 1120 91% 1210 98% 1290 105%
50% Exceedence 1210 98% 1380 112% 1430 116% 1480 120%
10% Exceedence 1670 135% 1740 141% 1740 141% 1750 142%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 155 54% 220 76% 235 81% 255 88%
50% Exceedence 235 81% 280 97% 290 100% 300 104%
10% Exceedence 380 131% 395 136% 395 136% 390 135%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 19 29% 38 59% 39 60% 42 65%
50% Exceedence 37 57% 52 81% 51 79% 53 82%
10% Exceedence 79 122% 88 136% 83 128% 81 125%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 250 53% 345 73% 355 76% 390 83%
50% Exceedence 370 79% 440 94% 430 92% 450 96%
10% Exceedence 610 130% 630 134% 580 124% 570 121%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.
