B120UP.200606 (06/15/06 1259)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2006 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 30 %Avg Jun 6 %Avg Jun 13 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow Average 1849
90% Exceedence 3290 178% 3320 180% 3300 178%
50% Exceedence 3460 187% 3480 188% 3450 187%
10% Exceedence 3690 200% 3690 200% 3650 197%
Feather River at Oroville 1870
90% Exceedence 3220 172% 3250 174% 3270 175%
50% Exceedence 3400 182% 3420 183% 3430 183%
10% Exceedence 3630 194% 3630 194% 3630 194%
Yuba River near Smartville 1044
90% Exceedence 1780 170% 1790 171% 1780 170%
50% Exceedence 1880 180% 1880 180% 1870 179%
10% Exceedence 1980 190% 1970 189% 1950 187%
American River, below Folsom Lake 1282
90% Exceedence 2390 186% 2430 189% 2460 192%
50% Exceedence 2480 193% 2510 196% 2530 197%
10% Exceedence 2580 201% 2600 203% 2610 204%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir 469
90% Exceedence 780 166% 790 168% 810 173%
50% Exceedence 820 175% 830 177% 840 179%
10% Exceedence 860 183% 870 185% 870 185%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) 716
90% Exceedence 1280 179% 1280 179% 1300 182%
50% Exceedence 1320 184% 1320 184% 1340 187%
10% Exceedence 1380 193% 1370 191% 1380 193%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) 1230
90% Exceedence 2110 172% 2120 172% 2130 173%
50% Exceedence 2170 176% 2180 177% 2190 178%
10% Exceedence 2270 185% 2270 185% 2270 185%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) 633
90% Exceedence 1100 174% 1110 175% 1120 177%
50% Exceedence 1140 180% 1150 182% 1160 183%
10% Exceedence 1200 189% 1200 189% 1210 191%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake 1262
90% Exceedence 2120 168% 2130 169% 2140 170%
50% Exceedence 2200 174% 2200 174% 2210 175%
10% Exceedence 2290 182% 2280 181% 2290 182%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir 1234
90% Exceedence 2020 164% 2030 164% 2040 165%
50% Exceedence 2100 170% 2100 170% 2110 171%
10% Exceedence 2180 177% 2170 176% 2180 177%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir 290
90% Exceedence 460 159% 470 162% 480 166%
50% Exceedence 480 166% 490 169% 500 173%
10% Exceedence 505 174% 515 178% 525 181%
Tule River, below Lake Success 65
90% Exceedence 126 194% 128 197% 128 197%
50% Exceedence 130 200% 132 204% 132 204%
10% Exceedence 140 216% 141 217% 141 217%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake 470
90% Exceedence 690 147% 705 150% 705 150%
50% Exceedence 720 153% 730 155% 730 155%
10% Exceedence 760 162% 760 162% 760 162%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.
