B120UP.200803 (03/27/08 1120)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2008 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
Mar 1 %Avg Mar 11 %Avg Mar 18 %Avg Mar 25 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1819
90% Exceedence 1210 67% 1210 67% 1200 66% 1170 64%
50% Exceedence 1650 91% 1620 89% 1590 87% 1540 85%
10% Exceedence 2550 140% 2490 137% 2440 134% 2360 130%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1782
90% Exceedence 1140 64% 1160 65% 1200 67% 1180 66%
50% Exceedence 1740 98% 1700 95% 1690 95% 1620 91%
10% Exceedence 2890 162% 2750 154% 2680 150% 2540 143%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1006
90% Exceedence 600 60% 590 59% 620 62% 610 61%
50% Exceedence 960 95% 920 91% 930 92% 900 89%
10% Exceedence 1530 152% 1440 143% 1410 140% 1340 133%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1240
90% Exceedence 720 58% 710 57% 750 60% 720 58%
50% Exceedence 1160 94% 1100 89% 1100 89% 1030 83%
10% Exceedence 1990 160% 1870 151% 1830 148% 1720 139%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 461
90% Exceedence 340 74% 330 72% 330 72% 320 69%
50% Exceedence 460 100% 440 95% 430 93% 410 89%
10% Exceedence 700 152% 650 141% 620 135% 580 126%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 702
90% Exceedence 530 75% 520 74% 520 74% 500 71%
50% Exceedence 700 100% 680 97% 670 95% 640 91%
10% Exceedence 1090 155% 1020 145% 980 140% 920 131%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1220
90% Exceedence 960 79% 930 76% 920 75% 890 73%
50% Exceedence 1220 100% 1160 95% 1130 93% 1080 89%
10% Exceedence 1840 151% 1710 140% 1620 133% 1520 125%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 632
90% Exceedence 470 74% 450 71% 440 70% 420 66%
50% Exceedence 610 97% 580 92% 560 89% 530 84%
10% Exceedence 960 152% 890 141% 850 134% 790 125%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1254
90% Exceedence 960 77% 920 73% 910 73% 870 69%
50% Exceedence 1240 99% 1170 93% 1140 91% 1080 86%
10% Exceedence 1830 146% 1680 134% 1590 127% 1480 118%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1224
90% Exceedence 1000 82% 980 80% 980 80% 940 77%
50% Exceedence 1280 105% 1220 100% 1190 97% 1130 92%
10% Exceedence 1870 153% 1720 141% 1620 132% 1500 123%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 286
90% Exceedence 260 91% 250 87% 240 84% 240 84%
50% Exceedence 320 112% 310 108% 300 105% 290 101%
10% Exceedence 500 175% 470 164% 450 157% 420 147%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 64
90% Exceedence 48 76% 45 71% 43 68% 41 65%
50% Exceedence 67 105% 62 98% 59 93% 56 88%
10% Exceedence 141 222% 128 202% 120 189% 111 175%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 461
90% Exceedence 390 85% 370 80% 360 78% 330 72%
50% Exceedence 500 108% 470 102% 450 98% 410 89%
10% Exceedence 800 173% 710 154% 650 141% 570 124%
Questions regarding this forecast:
John King: (916) 574-2636 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2224 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2983 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Andy Reising at (916) 574-2181 (e-mail areising@water.ca.gov)
Adam Schneider at (916) 574-2208 (e-mail aschneid@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1956 to 2005.
