B120UP.200506 (06/30/05 1056)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2005 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 31 %Avg Jun 7 %Avg Jun 14 %Avg Jun 21 %Avg Jun 28 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 2240 121% 2300 124% 2280 123% 2290 124% 2280 123%
50% Exceedence 2420 131% 2470 134% 2440 132% 2440 132% 2420 131%
10% Exceedence 2650 143% 2680 145% 2640 143% 2620 142% 2600 141%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 1990 106% 2070 111% 2090 112% 2100 112% 2100 112%
50% Exceedence 2170 116% 2240 120% 2250 120% 2250 120% 2250 120%
10% Exceedence 2380 127% 2430 130% 2420 129% 2410 129% 2410 129%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 1330 127% 1400 134% 1420 136% 1430 137% 1430 137%
50% Exceedence 1410 135% 1480 142% 1490 143% 1490 143% 1490 143%
10% Exceedence 1510 145% 1570 150% 1570 150% 1560 149% 1560 149%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 1670 130% 1790 140% 1860 145% 1890 147% 1910 149%
50% Exceedence 1760 137% 1870 146% 1930 151% 1950 152% 1970 154%
10% Exceedence 1860 145% 1960 153% 2020 158% 2020 158% 2040 159%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 640 136% 650 139% 650 139% 650 139% 650 139%
50% Exceedence 670 143% 680 145% 680 145% 680 145% 675 144%
10% Exceedence 710 151% 720 153% 710 151% 710 151% 710 151%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 1040 145% 1060 148% 1080 151% 1080 151% 1080 151%
50% Exceedence 1080 151% 1110 155% 1120 156% 1120 156% 1120 156%
10% Exceedence 1130 158% 1180 165% 1170 163% 1170 163% 1170 163%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 1850 150% 1880 153% 1910 155% 1930 157% 1930 157%
50% Exceedence 1910 155% 1940 158% 1970 160% 1985 161% 1985 161%
10% Exceedence 2020 164% 2070 168% 2070 168% 2070 168% 2070 168%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 990 156% 1010 159% 1020 161% 1020 161% 1020 161%
50% Exceedence 1030 163% 1050 166% 1050 166% 1050 166% 1050 166%
10% Exceedence 1080 171% 1110 175% 1090 172% 1090 172% 1090 172%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 1870 148% 1910 151% 1930 153% 1950 155% 1950 155%
50% Exceedence 1950 155% 1990 158% 2000 159% 2020 160% 2020 160%
10% Exceedence 2020 160% 2100 166% 2090 166% 2100 166% 2100 166%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 1790 145% 1810 147% 1820 147% 1820 147% 1820 147%
50% Exceedence 1860 151% 1880 152% 1890 153% 1890 153% 1880 152%
10% Exceedence 1930 156% 1970 160% 1970 160% 1960 159% 1960 159%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 375 129% 395 136% 400 138% 400 138% 405 140%
50% Exceedence 395 136% 415 143% 420 145% 420 145% 425 147%
10% Exceedence 420 145% 445 154% 445 154% 440 152% 445 154%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 77 119% 80 123% 92 142% 92 142% 92 142%
50% Exceedence 83 128% 90 139% 100 154% 100 154% 101 156%
10% Exceedence 93 143% 100 154% 108 167% 107 165% 107 165%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 685 146% 690 147% 710 151% 710 151% 710 151%
50% Exceedence 715 152% 725 154% 740 158% 740 158% 740 158%
10% Exceedence 750 160% 770 164% 770 164% 770 164% 770 164%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Call (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
or (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.