B120UP.200605 (06/01/06 1551)
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
California Cooperative Snow Surveys
WATER SUPPLY FORECAST UPDATE
2006 April-July Unimpaired Runoff (1,000 Acre-feet)
May 1 %Avg May 9 %Avg May 16 %Avg May 23 %Avg May 30 %Avg
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Shasta Lake, total inflow average = 1849
90% Exceedence 3240 175% 3200 173% 3210 174% 3280 177% 3290 178%
50% Exceedence 3460 187% 3410 184% 3410 184% 3460 187% 3460 187%
10% Exceedence 3790 205% 3720 201% 3710 201% 3710 201% 3690 200%
Feather River at Oroville average = 1870
90% Exceedence 3100 166% 3060 164% 3080 165% 3180 170% 3220 172%
50% Exceedence 3370 180% 3320 178% 3320 178% 3370 180% 3400 182%
10% Exceedence 3770 202% 3700 198% 3680 197% 3620 194% 3630 194%
Yuba River near Smartville average = 1044
90% Exceedence 1725 165% 1705 163% 1710 164% 1780 170% 1780 170%
50% Exceedence 1900 182% 1870 179% 1870 179% 1890 181% 1880 180%
10% Exceedence 2060 197% 2020 193% 2010 192% 2000 192% 1980 190%
American River, below Folsom Lake average = 1282
90% Exceedence 2300 179% 2280 178% 2310 180% 2370 185% 2390 186%
50% Exceedence 2440 190% 2410 188% 2430 189% 2470 193% 2480 193%
10% Exceedence 2640 206% 2590 202% 2600 203% 2590 202% 2580 201%
Mokelumne River, inflow to Pardee Reservoir average = 469
90% Exceedence 780 166% 770 164% 780 166% 790 168% 780 166%
50% Exceedence 820 175% 810 173% 820 175% 830 177% 820 175%
10% Exceedence 890 190% 880 188% 880 188% 880 188% 860 183%
Stanislaus River, below Goodwin Res. (blw New Melones) average = 716
90% Exceedence 1240 173% 1230 172% 1250 175% 1280 179% 1280 179%
50% Exceedence 1310 183% 1300 182% 1310 183% 1330 186% 1320 184%
10% Exceedence 1410 197% 1390 194% 1390 194% 1400 196% 1380 193%
Tuolumne River, below La Grange Res. (blw Don Pedro) average = 1230
90% Exceedence 2060 167% 2050 167% 2070 168% 2110 172% 2110 172%
50% Exceedence 2150 175% 2140 174% 2150 175% 2180 177% 2170 176%
10% Exceedence 2300 187% 2280 185% 2280 185% 2290 186% 2270 185%
Merced River, below Merced Falls (below Lake McClure) average = 633
90% Exceedence 1090 172% 1090 172% 1100 174% 1110 175% 1100 174%
50% Exceedence 1140 180% 1130 178% 1140 180% 1150 182% 1140 180%
10% Exceedence 1240 196% 1220 193% 1220 193% 1220 193% 1200 189%
San Joaquin River, below Millerton Lake average = 1262
90% Exceedence 2080 165% 2070 164% 2090 166% 2120 168% 2120 168%
50% Exceedence 2180 173% 2170 172% 2180 173% 2200 174% 2200 174%
10% Exceedence 2350 186% 2320 184% 2320 184% 2300 182% 2290 182%
Kings River, below Pine Flat Reservoir average = 1234
90% Exceedence 1980 160% 1970 160% 1990 161% 2020 164% 2020 164%
50% Exceedence 2080 169% 2070 168% 2080 169% 2100 170% 2100 170%
10% Exceedence 2180 177% 2160 175% 2170 176% 2180 177% 2180 177%
Kaweah River, below Terminus Reservoir average = 290
90% Exceedence 455 157% 455 157% 465 161% 470 162% 460 159%
50% Exceedence 480 166% 480 166% 490 169% 490 169% 480 166%
10% Exceedence 520 180% 515 178% 520 180% 515 178% 505 174%
Tule River, below Lake Success average = 65
90% Exceedence 119 183% 119 183% 124 191% 126 194% 126 194%
50% Exceedence 125 193% 125 193% 130 200% 130 200% 130 200%
10% Exceedence 139 214% 138 213% 142 219% 141 217% 140 216%
Kern River, inflow to Isabella Lake average = 470
90% Exceedence 670 143% 670 143% 680 145% 690 147% 690 147%
50% Exceedence 700 149% 700 149% 710 151% 720 153% 720 153%
10% Exceedence 750 160% 740 158% 750 160% 760 162% 760 162%
Questions regarding this forecast:
Steve Nemeth: (916) 574-2634 (e-mail nemeth@water.ca.gov)
John King: (916) 574-2637 (e-mail kingjj@water.ca.gov)
Dave Rizzardo: (916) 574-2617 (e-mail daver@water.ca.gov)
Runoff forecasts are unimpaired (full natural) flows which represent the
natural water production of the river basin, unaltered by upstream diversions,
storage, or export or import of water to or from other watersheds.
The median (50%) forecast assumes median conditions after the date of forecast.
Runoff exceedence levels are derived from historical data.
The 90 percent exceedence level and the 10 percent exceedence level together
comprise a range about the median forecast in which the actual runoff should
fall 8 times out of 10.
Forecasts are stated in 1,000's of acre-feet and percent of (50-year) average.
The averages are for the period 1951 to 2000.